Quiz

The Key To Spotting a Coming Recession? Local Banks

Also: De-macho-ing job ads alters the applicant pool; old bank learning new tricks

1 of 5
1 of 5

When local banks struggle to attract deposits, that’s a sign of a weakening economy. A 1.3 percentage point increase in the interest rate offered on a $10,000 certificate of deposit suggests:
The likelihood of a recession in the area two years hence increases by 3.7%.
Increases by 37%.
Increases by 370%.

Read on: This underappreciated early warning system is itself endangered, as many local banks are being acquired and their numbers declining. Banks that operate nationally can move deposit money around, and thus don’t signal local troubles as acutely.

2 of 5
2 of 5

Some jobs ads seem downright macho, seeking candidates who’re “confident,” “strong,” “outspoken,” “aggressive” and “entrepreneurial.” Replacing those terms not with feminine ones but de-gendering the ads — “entrepreneurial” becomes “willing to pursue new and creative ideas” — the ads seem to agree with:
More women, but no men.
More women, fewer men and fewer people overall.
More women and some men who also were turned off by the macho language, adding up to more people overall.

Read on: Gender in this study wasn’t binary — simply man or woman — but took account of how strongly people identify with a gender.

3 of 5
3 of 5

Fintech startups are trying to disrupt the long-held dominance of banks, using new technology and fresh business models. Traditional banks in China, some embracing fintech methods, find:
The effort pays off with improvement in profitability, better operating efficiency and lower risk.
It backfires and their operations descend into chaos.
No change in results.

Read on: Strong management and rigor in the application of the new technology is also important.

4 of 5
4 of 5

In forecasting tournaments, social scientists asked to predict the societal changes from the COVID-19 epidemic:
Did no better than nonexperts making predictions.
Were eerily accurate, several becoming finalists for the Nobel prize.

Read on: Forecasting is a distinct skill not generally taught to social scientists.

5 of 5
5 of 5

Cultural divides exist around the world, but in the U.S. are more pronounced on:
Religion.
Abortion.
Homosexuality.
All of the above.

Read on: The cultural divide actually isn’t new here. It’s just that political parties have reorganized themselves around the divide.