Area: Finance
Puncturing the Small-Investors-are-Bad-Investors Narrative
Individuals using the Robinhood trading app appear to beat the market
Prediction Markets + Polls + Economic Indicators: Better Election Forecasting?
A model incorporating markets that allow betting on elections suggests a role in prognostications
Political Football: Inclusion of ESG Funds in 401(k)s
In nation accustomed to litigation, availability of funds has varied by U.S. Circuit Court boundary
Out of the 1990s Asian Crisis, a New Bond Market Rises
Local currency sovereign bonds transfer risk from issuer to buyer
Options Market Signals Scope of Federal Reserve Interventions
Traders see an implicit promise beyond specific asset purchases
One European Country Defaults: How Hard-Hit Is the Euro?
A predictive model employs credit default swaps across currencies
One Data Set That Warns Against Margin Trading
As a group, Chinese futures traders more likely to suffer margin call than to profit
Often Reviled, Short Sellers Are Newly Vulnerable to the Meme Mob
A short squeeze can ripple across short sellers’ positions
New Appreciation for a Classic Stock Market Gauge
The relationship between short- and longer-term moving averages has strong predictive power for share price returns
Mortgage Prepayments: Factors beyond Interest Rate Movements
A model estimates the impact of economic variables on the pricing of prepayment risk
Momentum Investing: It Works, But Why?
After a quarter century of sprawling study, it’s time to narrow the focus and settle on an explanation
Middlemen: Matchmakers or Sources of Strategic Information?
Probing that question using a database of for-sale-by-owner home listings
Looming Risk to Financial System: $1 Trillion in Commercial Loan Pools
Known as collateralized loan obligations, their aim is actually to reduce risk
Local-Level Mortgage Lending: How Competition Pushes Rates Higher, Not Lower
A study finds unexpected impact when a disruptive player enters market
Local Banks Provide an Early Warning System on Recessions
When they’re forced to pay up for deposits, it’s a bad sign for area’s economy
Loan Pool Covenants, Meant to Contain Risk, Can Instead Spread It
Forced sale of assets could stretch illiquidity across industries