Topic: Forecasting
Prediction Markets + Polls + Economic Indicators: Better Election Forecasting?
A model incorporating markets that allow betting on elections suggests a role in prognostications
Local Banks Provide an Early Warning System on Recessions
When they’re forced to pay up for deposits, it’s a bad sign for area’s economy
Experts Struggle to Accurately Forecast Societal Change
On COVID-19’s impacts, social scientists’ predictions weren’t much better than those of laypeople
Distributing Aid Fairly Amid Scarcity and Unknown Demand
Building adaptability into an approach improves performance
How a Stock Analyst’s Face Affects Their Earning Estimates
Trustworthy and dominant-seeming men: access to corporate management. Dominant-seeming women: not so much.
Quantifying the Benefits of Legally Cooperating with Competitors
Sales forecasting improves markedly as firms participate in standard setting organizations
As Home Prices Soar Elsewhere, California Starts to Seem Almost Reasonable
Will the narrowing price gap bring an end to the state’s out-migration?
A $15 Minimum Wage May Have (Partially) Arrived, But Who Pays?
Study of L.A.-area restaurants gauges effect on owners, customers, landlords
Is the $1 Trillion Coastal Housing Market a Future Financial Crisis?
Homebuyers ignore warnings of rising seas; lenders keep lending
Solar Calculators Are Precise, But Data Don’t Always Persuade
A separate motivator: friends living in areas abundant in solar panels
“How’re Sales, Roger?” “Good Question, Roger!”
When CEO and analyst share a first name, earnings estimates are sharper
Tech Sector Propels California’s Economy Faster than the Nation’s
New economic indicator allows forecasters to monitor the state’s performance more closely
How People Gather Information — or Don’t — to Make Decisions
Personal beliefs, especially among the less educated, often outweigh actual data
Some Unfortunate Truths about Trade
The troublesome relationship between tariffs, trade deficits and the tenuous economic recovery
When Ebola Strikes, Where Should Help Go?
Improving epidemic forecasting helps response teams target aid more effectively